Feet on the ground – head in the clouds.

Posts Tagged ‘270 to win

A suspicion about the electoral map in 2008

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This is what I imagine could be possible in the very real world if all voters who have shown interest throughout the entire campaign — on both sides — shows up on Election Day (or voted early). If the race were to end up being close, with McCain winning the traditionally red states of North Dakota, Louisiana, Montana, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia & Arizona, holds Nebraska’s 2nd district and then locks down Florida, Pennsylvania & Ohio – the Republican will win the White House for a 3rd straight term 270-268. But if you have any doubts about any of those states, Obama should be the next President of the United States of America. President Barack Obama. I, for one, have doubts in all of those states. My doubts come from polls and first-hand accounts of the mood in many “red state” lines I’ve read in various blogs on the new 4th Estate. 

I’m not claiming to be an expert on anything nor am I really making a prediction per se, it’s more like what my gut would bet the farm on if I had like $3 left after losing my life savings, home and car in Vegas. I tend to look to fivethirtyeight.com, pollster.com and early voting statistics from the George Mason University Department of Public and International Affairs. Call me crazy, but I think the election can only be won for McCain with a LOT of voter suppression on Tuesday. Go to 270towin.com, make your own map and if you care link to it here. I’m curious to see where others think this race could go.


Written by unastronaut

November 2, 2008 at 5:26 pm

There are 11 million more registered Democrats

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If we show up, we win. In every sense of the word. Based on what we saw in 2004, the Democrats would simply need to hold and pick up Ohio. It’s very important to pick up Ohio, and for workers in the rust belt the decision should be easy. That’s why we hear about things like a “resurgent culture war” and other non-issue distractions.  The McCain campaign (led by Karl Rove’s protégé Steve Schmidt) knows this election cannot be about what is best for the American people.  

If you’ve gotten discouraged by some of the events of the last few weeks, think about a few things:  

  • Have you ever been called for a poll?
  • Do you know anyone who has ever responded to these tracking polls? Why not? 
  • Do you have a land-line?
  • Do you respond well to calls sounding like solicitations?
  • If you’re working three jobs just to keep your home, do you have any chance to be polled?

Then there are the admissions from pollsters that they used methodologies that leaned toward McCain. People who know what must be done this November are patiently waiting until January 20th, 2009 at 12:00 pm eastern time to breathe a sigh of relief that the assault on the middle class is over. The polls are not going to matter this year, and the results of this election could shock everyone. I have a good feeling about both New Mexico and Colorado going to Obama, and the Republicans may actually find they’ve lost a lot of support in Florida, Nevada and Iowa (of all places). There are a lot of states that ended up very close in 2004, when the Democrats put up a weak candidate in Senator John Kerry. The only way we can lose this election is if the talking heads convince us it doesn’t matter, yet again.